Economic Spillover Baja Sur

December 29, 2025

by Carla1

Economic Spillover Baja Sur

In Baja California Sur, the ‘economic spillover’ that is typically reported publicly is closely tied to tourism (spending by visitors on lodging, food, transportation, tours, shopping, etc.). With that in mind, it is on positive ground and expected to rise in 2025:

State tourist revenue 2025 (official estimate): from January to October 2025, revenue of 23,747 million pesos was reported, up 14.3% compared to the same period in 2024; and it is projected to close 2025 near 28,000 million due to the high season at the end of the year.
Visitor flow (by air, estimate): state authorities estimate an annual total of approximately 4.4 to 4.5 million passengers/visitors in 2025.
Hotel occupancy: for the end of the year, an average state occupancy of over 70% is expected. In Los Cabos, peaks of 80-90% have been reported during the Christmas season and an annual average of 70-71%.
Los Cabos (mid-year indicators): in July 2025, a 74% hotel occupancy was reported (+3 pp vs July 2024) and an average rate of $389 USD.
Cruises (example of a one-time economic impact): an arrival in Pichilingue (La Paz) with ~4,901 passengers was estimated to generate $3.5 million MXN in economic impact; and there are estimates of $3–4 million MXN per arrival depending on the itinerary and spending.

To put it in a ‘macro’ context, INEGI reports that the state GDP of BCS in 2024 grew 3.5% in real terms (at constant values), driven by trade and hospitality and food services (which grew 10.4%), as well as construction.

In Los Cabos, the economic spillover (in practice, the tourism spending that is ‘spread’ across hotels, restaurants, tours, transportation, and retail) is doing well and showing signs of growth, with two nuances: more volume and a greater focus on higher-value tourism, although with seasonal variations in rates.

The ‘hardest’ in numbers (2025)

Reported spending (January–May 2025): the Hotel Association reported 12 billion pesos in spending, with 1.6 million passengers arriving in Los Cabos during that period.

Reported spillover (January–May 2025): the Hotel Association reported a spillover of 12 billion pesos, with 1.6 million passengers arriving in Los Cabos during that period.
Hotel occupancy (July 2025): 74% (≈ +3 pp vs July 2024). By subzones: Cabo San Lucas 80%, San José del Cabo 65%, Scenic Route 68%.
Rate and RevPAR (July 2025): average rate $389 USD (≈ -6% vs July 2024) and RevPAR $288 USD (≈ -2%). This suggests that the summer was sustained more by occupancy than by average price, with downward pressure especially on the Scenic Route.
Air passengers (Los Cabos Airport, Jan–Aug 2025): 2.63 million passengers, +1.7% vs Jan–Aug 2024 (international +0.6%, domestic +3.5%).

Cruises (significant additional spillover in Cabo San Lucas)

Jan–Jul 2025: 161 arrivals and 605,763 passengers, with an increase of +24% in arrivals and +36% in passengers compared to the same period in 2024 (municipal data).
2025 total (cruise ships): it is reported that over 600,000 cruise tourists have generated an estimated revenue of 54 million dollars.

“Quality” of spending (2024 baseline data that continues to set the trend)

FITURCA reported (in its 2024 report) an average stay of 6.1 nights and a daily expenditure of approximately $6,367 MXN, as well as an average nightly rate of $481 USD in 2024 (up from $286 in 2019).

End of year /

For Christmas and New Year’s 2025, occupancy peaks of 90% are reported; and an estimated annual average of 70–71%, with an expectation of reaching ~4 million visitors. The same note mentions an average rate of ~ $500 USD/night (typical of high season and a luxury mix).